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Photos By Michael Dubiner

      

WHERE ARE DIGITAL CAMERAS GOING IN 2003 AND BEYOND?
(Money, Megapixels, Multiplication and Miniaturization)

      

     

     The new year's approach has us reminiscing about the past and often attempting to divine the future, particularly when it comes to photographers and what our next "toy" might be. We all know about the digital camera revolution that has shaken the imaging world over the last few years. I will attempt to look into 2003, and slightly beyond, to predict the future of digital cameras. The future, in my view has everything to do with the four M's, Money, Megapixels, Multiplication and Miniaturization.

MONEY

     There is no genius in predicting that digital cameras will be getting less expensive. It has been happening for years. However, the trend has been vastly accelerated in 2002 with the introduction of products from Nikon, Canon and Fuji that have professional features and over six megapixels for a street price of under $2000. While these cameras may not have the durable bodies and all the bells and whistles of true pro models, they are close, and are certainly capable of making professional quality images.

      It is clear that this trend will continue with a gradually growing pixel count accompanied by a concurrent drop in prices in the high megapixel single lens reflex camera market. Manufacturers will remove still more features from entry level DSLR's that are not needed for the vast majority of image making situations in 2003 to produce entry level "professional image quality" DSLR's even less expensively. Prices will also be pushed down by a combination of technological advancement, even greater use of composites, competition and economies of scale as more image makers move into this technology.

MEGAPIXELS

     The biggest surprise of the recent Photokina show in Germany was the announcement of the Kodak DCS Pro 14n. The camera has a rugged professional body designed by Nikon specifically for this Kodak product. It has a full sized CMOS sensor with a huge 14 million pixels. That is more than double the pixel count of the models discussed above.

     Due out in mid-January, this camera has a full 35 mm sized sensor. Most other digital single lens reflex cameras use CCD image sensors which are smaller than the traditional 35 mm format. This causes a multiplication of focal length by a factor of 1.4 - 1.7. This means that the new 20 mm lens which you bought for wide angle photography for your 35 mm film camera becomes a 30 mm lens by just putting it on your digital body. This has it's advantages for nature photographers and others who use large focal length lenses and crave further magnification of their subjects. For Street Photographers and others who need the wider focal length, this full sized CMOS sensor will allow wide angle lenses to be truly "wide angle" on DSLR's.

     The CMOS sensor is claimed to be more energy efficient than the CCD sensor leading to longer battery life. They also are reputed to need less electronics to run, promising smaller, lighter cameras, although the Kodak Pro 14n weighs in at a formidable two pounds, without lenses. The CMOS sensor is supposed to generate less of an electrical charge, hence attracting less dust to the sensor, truly a needed improvement over the current generation of CCD sensors. Interestingly enough, although Kodak manufactures many of it's own imaging chips, it went to Europe to purchase the chip used in this camera.

     The best part is the street price of this camera. At $5,000 it is certainly not inexpensive. However, my trusty Nikon D1X, with a comparatively minuscule 5.4 million megapixels is still selling briskly for $4,500. I am certain it's sales will slow dramatically and it's price will plunge once the Pro 14n is released in mid-January.

      This camera, while not a revolution, will be a "keeper" for several years. Professionals and advanced amateurs will try to justify this as a "must have" camera. Just as the Nikon D1X has withstood the onslaught of new equipment for 2 years or so, this camera will be there next year and the year after, a lifetime in the digital age. By the way, the as yet unreleased Canon EOS 1Ds has many of the same features as the Pro 14n. But, with "only" 11 megapixels and a street price of $8000, only those who have a fortune invested in Canon lenses will consider it as a true competitor for the Kodak DCS Pro 14n.

     Look for other manufacturers to use this or similar chips, cut back on the features and skimp on the body of this camera and come out with significantly less expensive versions of this megapixel camera.

MULTIPLICATION

     The other technology that was supposed to steal the show at Photokina is the Foveon X3 chip. The chip has a multi-layered design which allows each pixel on the chip to "see" three colors, red, green and blue. While the pixel count on this CMOS sensor is only 3.4 megapixels, the claim is that this figure should be multiplied by 3 (one for each color) in order to make a fair comparison with the pixel count of other cameras.

      The Sigma SD9 is presently the only camera that uses this chip. The street price is under $2,000 which makes it "inexpensive" if it is considered a 10 megapixel camera. The camera's initial reviews are good. Unfortunately, this CMOS sensor is not full sized so the focal length advantage goes to Kodak.

     Look for this sensor to compete with the current technology and perhaps even become the dominant digital camera chip in the coming years. Certainly, other manufactures will be using this sensor technology soon.

     Which chip will win out in the end? It is difficult to say. The price difference between the Kodak and Sigma products has as much to do with the construction of the bodies as anything else. What is clear is that both cameras signal what is coming in 2003, a doubling of the pixel counts and more in DSLR's with no real price difference from what we paid in 2002 for lesser products. With both technologies the equality with film is here for many imaging situations.

MINIATURIZATION

     On the other end of the spectrum, miniaturization is finally coming to the world of high pixel prosumer cameras.

     Hopefully, I will be able to write a Street Photographers's review of the new Contax TVS Digital for the next article. Contax market representatives have promised me a test camera as soon as it is available, so that PIXIPORT can have one of the first reviews of this exciting new camera. At five megapixels, it is almost as small as the other Contax "T" cameras, with a host of automatic features and manual overrides. This camera has the potential to be the Street Photographer's dream "carry along" camera. I will be looking at shutter lag, ability to handle underexposure errors and overall speed and ease of use in determining if this is the ideal Street Photographer's digital pocket camera.

     Kyocera, the parent company of Contax is also releasing it's Finecam S5, a camera which appears to share many of the TVS's features. The Olympus C 50Z is already on the market. Also, recently announced is Konica's Digital Revio KD-500Z, another miniature 5 megapixel camera. Look for a host of these pocketable cameras in 2003.

     The real issue for all of these cameras is whether the miniature lenses on these cameras have the power to resolve five megapixels. My guess is that some will and others will not. The first one I find that can do the job will reside my pocket in a few months or less. Pricing for these cameras seems to be between $600 and $1,000. Look for that price to fall once the digital "pocket camera" is made by more manufacturers in 2003.

     In many ways, 2003 is likely to be the year that digital photography establishes itself as the dominant force in image making, at least for the professional and advanced amateur. With prices falling, and megapixels skyrocketing, many more photographers will see little use for their film based cameras.

     The image accompanying this article is of my daughter Jeannie and her friend Leah "messing around" in her bedroom. While we can discuss technology and equipment all day long, image making is just plain fun! And, as I have said in a number of articles on this site, you need to have the camera with you and ready if you want to capture the image.

     The Wallflower Gallery in Miami, Florida is currently hosting an exhibition of over 40 of my Street Photographs now through February, 2003. If you are going to be in Miami and would like to see these images give the Wallflower a call at 305 579_0069. Also, two of my images are being displayed as part of the 64th Annual National Exhibition of Contemporary American Paintings and Photography at the Society of the Four Arts Museum in Palm Beach, Florida, now through the end of the year. The Museum had to change the title of this exhibition in 2002 because this is the first time in it's 64 year history that the Four Arts has allowed photography to participate in this show. I am certain that once we have broken the barrier, there will be no further exclusion of photography from this exhibition. By the way, one of my images in the exhibit is "digital all the way" taken with my Nikon D1X (at 3200 ISO no less!) and printed to 11x14 size on a modified Epson 1280 using Piezpgraphy archival pigments. Despite the prejudice against digital in some circles, this museum apparently did not care that this print was not made in the traditional manner. The juror, David C. Levy, President and Director of the Corcoran Gallery of Art in Washington, even examined the actual prints, as opposed to viewing slides, in choosing images for the show, an unusual practice for this type of exhibit. Yes, digital imaging is tumbling all the barriers and that trend will accelerate in the years to come.

(The author, Michael Dubiner is a professional image maker and lawyer who lives in Wellington, Florida. His articles will appear twice monthly on PixiPort. His work can be seen at PixiPort.com and at his web site, duby.com.)